Retail Savings & Investments in Ireland: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

Retail Savings & Investments in Ireland: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

Summary

The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have already significantly impacted the global economy, with key markets across the globe losing 20-50% of their value for the year to date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts, with consensus global GDP growth currently at 2.6% for 2020 and many experts predicting the onset of recessionary environments.

Government measures to contain the virus spread are set to have an impact on the country’s economy, with the majority of commercial activities coming to a halt. The Central Bank of Ireland estimates a decline of 8.3% in the country’s GDP in 2020 if the current containment restrictions last for three months. The central bank also expects the unemployment rate to be around 25% during the second quarter, up from 4.8% at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. This severe economic disruption will impact the country’s wealth industry.

This report focuses on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on the Irish economy and the country’s retail savings and investment market. It also highlights the measures adopted by the government to combat COVID-19. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot contrasts GlobalData’s pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total retail bond, deposits, equities and mutual funds holdings in terms of value and growth rates. It also analyses the effects on HNW wealth, examining the importance of different industries as a contributor to HNW wealth.

Scope

- Ireland’s total retail savings and investments market is forecast to contract by 5.3% during the year.
- Deposits already account for the majority of household savings in Ireland and will grow as a result of the pandemic, mitigating much of the losses suffered by holders of equity and mutual funds.
- Bonds and other products such as prize bonds will also see growth in 2020, although their small role in the overall savings and investments mix means their impact on the value of the overall Irish market will be modest.
- Equity and mutual fund holdings will bounce back sharply in 2021 as the global economic recovery takes off.
- While Irish HNW individuals’ invested assets are at risk from market volatility and recession, the COVID-19 outbreak and lockdown will have relatively little negative impact. The three main industries generating HNW wealth in Ireland are all in areas that have reasonably bright prospects even through the accompanying recession that will follow this crisis.
- Finance (driven by a growing role for Dublin in international banking following Brexit), healthcare (boosted by government investment due to the virus), and technology (boosted by a greater reliance throughout the economy on digital and remote solutions) will all grow their share of the Irish HNW market.

Reasons to Buy

- Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the Irish retail savings and investments industry.
- Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the Irish retail savings and investments industry.
- Receive a comprehensive insight into the retail liquid asset holdings in Ireland, including deposits, mutual funds, equities, and bonds.