Retail Savings and Investments in Australia - COVID-19 Impact Snapshot

Retail Savings and Investments in Australia - COVID-19 Impact Snapshot

Summary

The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have already significantly impacted the global economy, with most countries across the world registering dramatic declines in economic activity in the year to date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts as a number of countries have officially slipped into recession in Q1 2020.

A similar trend was seen in Australia. With GDP contracting by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2020, the country is technically already in recession, with Q2 data expected to be notably worse. However, Australia is among the few countries that have been successful in severely limiting the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. With the government now easing lockdown restrictions, a rise in consumer and commercial spending is expected, which in turn will support the retail savings and investments market. However, a localized outbreak in the Melbourne area is adding to fears surrounding a second wave, which could have an adverse effect on the market.

This report focuses on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on the Australian economy and the country’s retail savings and investment market. It also highlights the measures adopted by the government to combat COVID-19. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot contrasts GlobalData’s pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total retail bond, deposits, equities and mutual funds holdings in terms of value and growth rates. It also analyses the effects on HNW wealth, examining the importance of different industries as a contributor to HNW wealth.

Scope

- The Australian retail savings and investment market is forecast to contract by 0.4% in 2020 before recovering in the following year.
- The performance of the stock market took an upward turn in April as a result of the progressively easing lockdown measures nationwide. However, the ongoing loss of productivity and potential occurrence of a second wave of virus infections continue to create uncertainties that will have a negative impact on demand for risk assets throughout the year. Hence, mutual funds and equity holdings will suffer the most pronounced declines of 18.2% and 10.1% respectively over the course of 2020.
- Consumer confidence hit a five-year low in April, and while it has since risen on the back of a flattening curve, it remains well below the 12-month average recorded prior to the pandemic. As investors are looking to the safety of deposits, we forecast holdings to increase by 9.8% in 2020.
- Some segments of the Australian high-net-worth (HNW) market will be more affected than others due to their exposure to different industries. The financial services and investments sector, which is the largest contributor to Australian HNW wealth, has already taken a significant hit, as indicated by the 21.7% decrease of the S&P/ASX 200 Banks index since the beginning of the year.
- On the contrary, the healthcare and technology sectors remain successful in weathering the storm more robustly. The S&P/ASX 200 Health Care has risen by 4.3% since the beginning of 2020, while the behavioral change of customers towards increased internet usage, caused by working-from-home practices, as well as buying products and services online has resulted in the further expansion of the tech sector.

Reasons to Buy

- Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the Australian retail savings and investments industry.
- Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the Australian retail savings and investments industry.
- Receive a comprehensive insight into the retail liquid asset holdings in Australia, including deposits, mutual funds, equities, and bonds.