Construction in Colombia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022

Construction in Colombia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022

Summary

The Colombian construction industry contracted by 2.0% in real terms in 2017, due to weak economic activity, declining national income and low oil revenues, coupled with uncertainty generated by corruption investigations, which resulted in low investment in major infrastructure projects.

The country’s construction industry is expected to contract further in real terms, by 1.6% in 2018, before regaining growth momentum. Over the forecast period (2018-2022), however, the industry is expected to be supported by the government’s efforts to revitalize the economy, as well as subsequent improvements in investor and consumer confidence. The ongoing recovery in oil prices is also expected to push the government’s ability to invest in large infrastructure projects over the coming years.

Under the Fourth Generation (4G) program, the government plans to invest in roads, railways and airports. With an investment of COP1.6 trillion (US$550.0 million), the government plans to build the Bogotá-Villavicencio road by 2022. Furthermore, in November 2018, the National Development Bank (FDN) and Colombian pension fund administrators launched a new capital fund worth COP1.4 trillion (US$490.0 million) to co-finance the major infrastructure projects in the country.

The industry’s output value in real terms is expected to record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.55% over the forecast period.

GlobalData’s "Construction in Colombia - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2022", report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Colombian construction industry, including -
- The Colombian construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Colombian construction industry
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Key Highlights

- GlobalData anticipates the infrastructure construction market to be the industry’s fastest-growing market over the forecast period, with an expected CAGR of 5.53% in nominal terms. The market is expected to continue to expand over the forecast period, driven by public and private sector investments in public transport infrastructure. Under the 4G Road Infrastructure Program, the government plans to invest COP47.0 trillion (US$16.5 billion) to develop the country road network by 2030.
- Forecast-period growth in the energy and utilities construction market will be supported by the government’s plans to increase the country’s total electricity production capacity from 16,501MW in 2016 to 25,188MW by 2028, In addition, in April 2018, the government announced plans to generate 30.0% of the country’s total energy mix from non- hydropower renewable sources such as wind and solar by 2030.
- GlobalData expects the residential construction market to account for 26.2% of the industry’s total value in 2022, driven by the government’s efforts to balance housing demand and supply through the construction of affordable housing units. In February 2018, the government launched a COP1.2 trillion (US$420.0 million) Housing Subsidy Program, with the aim to provide new houses to low- and middle-income families in urban areas over the next seven years.
- The government’s commitment to pursuing quality development and continuous expenditure on the education sector is expected to support the institutional construction market’s growth over the forecast period. In its 2019 budget proposal, the government is expected to increase its allocation towards the education sector by 4.9%. The expansion of the aging population is also expected to drive spending on healthcare facilities over the forecast period. Accordingly, in the 2019 budget proposal, the government is expected to spend COP28.5 trillion (US$9.7 billion) on healthcare sector - an increase of 2.1% compared to the 2018 budget.
- The total construction project pipeline in Colombia - as tracked by GlobalData, and including all mega projects with a value above US$25 million - stands at COP320.3 trillion (US$108.5 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, is relatively skewed towards late-stage projects, with 59.6% of the project pipeline value being in the pre-execution and execution stages as of January 2019.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Colombia. It provides -
- Historical (2013-2017) and forecast (2018-2022) valuations of the construction industry in Colombia, featuring details of key growth drivers.
- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants.

Reasons to buy

- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.
- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.
- Understand the latest industry and market trends.
- Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.
- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.
- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.