Future of the Bulgarian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 6

• 1.1. What is this Report About? 6
• 1.2. Definitions 6
• 1.3. Summary Methodology 8
• 1.4. About GlobalData 9

2. Executive Summary 10

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities 11

• 3.1. Current Market Scenario 12
  • 3.1.1. Military Fleet Size 12
  • 3.1.2. Procurement Programs 15
  • 3.1.3. Key Drivers and Challenges 16
• 3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast 17
  • 3.2.1. Bulgarian defense budget to grow at a forecast-period CAGR of 9.34% 17
  • 3.2.2. The country’s participation in peacekeeping missions and modernization plans to meet NATO standards will boost defense expenditure 19
  • 3.2.3. Bulgaria’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase over the forecast period 20
• 3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation 22
  • 3.3.1. Capital expenditure will increase over the forecast period 22
  • 3.3.2. Capital expenditure is anticipated to record a forecast-period CAGR of 4.56% 24
  • 3.3.3. Per capita defense expenditure to rise over the forecast period 26
• 3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast 27
  • 3.4.1. Homeland security expenditure will post a forecast-period CAGR of 2.9% 27
  • 3.4.2. Cybercrime and border control measures to drive the homeland security budget 29
  • 3.4.3. Bulgaria falls under the “some risk” category on the terrorism index 30
  • 3.4.4. Bulgaria faces some level threat from terrorist organizations 31
  • 3.4.5. Bulgaria has a terrorism index score of 1.2 33
• 3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets 34
  • 3.5.1. Bulgaria’s defense budget expected to increase over the forecast period 34
  • 3.5.2. Bulgaria’s military expenditure is limited compared to countries with the largest defense expenditures 36
  • 3.5.3. The defense budget as a percentage of GDP is set to increase over the forecast period 37
• 3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers 38

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics 39

• 4.1. Import Market Dynamics 40
  • 4.1.1. Bulgaria recorded very limited imports during the historic period 40
• 4.2. Export Market Dynamics 41
  • 4.2.1. Defense exports increased during the historic period 41
  • 4.2.2. Iraq, Angola and Saudi Arabia were major arms recipients 42
  • 4.2.3. Armored vehicles and artillery accounted for 88.0% of defense exports 43

5. Market Entry strategy 44

• 5.1. Market Regulation 44
  • 5.1.1. Offsets are usually 70% indirect and 30% direct 44
  • 5.1.2. FDI policies in Bulgaria 44
• 5.2. Market Entry Route 45
  • 5.2.1. Budgeting process 45
  • 5.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process 46
  • 5.2.3. Joint ventures and engagement with local representatives provide attractive market entry routes 46

6. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights 47

• 6.1. Competitive Landscape Overview 47

7. Business Environment and Country Risk 48

• 7.1. Economic Performance 48
  • 7.1.1. GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$) 48
  • 7.1.2. GDP at Current Prices (US$) 49
  • 7.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services 50
  • 7.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services 51
  • 7.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income 52
  • 7.1.6. LCU per US$ (Period Average) 53
  • 7.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies 54
  • 7.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP) 55
  • 7.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP 56
  • 7.1.10. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP 57
  • 7.1.11. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP 58
  • 7.1.12. Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP 59
  • 7.1.13. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP 60
  • 7.1.14. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), net (BoP, current US$ Billion) 61
  • 7.1.15. Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP 62
  • 7.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output 63

8. Appendix 64

• 8.1. About GlobalData 64