Construction in Norway - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023

Construction in Norway - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023

Summary

In real terms, the Norwegian construction industry registered growth of 4.6% and 3.9% in 2017 and 2018 respectively, following an average annual growth of 3.5% during 2014-2016. This growth was due to positive developments in economic conditions and investments in transport infrastructure, energy and housing construction projects.

The industry is expected to continue to expand in 2019, with the industry’s output expected to expand by 4% in real terms that year. However, the construction industry is expected to suffer a downturn in 2020, contracting by an estimated 0.3% in real terms, due to a deceleration in gross fixed capital formation in the construction industry and contraction in the total number of dwellings started in 2017 and 2018, but will then pick up steadily to record an annual average growth of 2.7% during 2021-2023.

Over the forecast period (2019-2023), the industry’s growth will be driven by the government’s focus to develop the transport infrastructure in the country. The government plans to invest NOK120 billion (US$14.7 billion) in railways during the period of 2018-2023. In addition, the government’s aim to improve local energy resources is expected to support investments in energy infrastructure projects, which will in turn fuel growth in the industry. In April 2019, the government allowed the Government Pension Fund Global to double its investment in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure. The industry growth will also be driven by the National Transport Plan 2018-2029, under which the government plans to develop the transport infrastructure across the country by 2029.

The industry’s output value in real terms is expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.34% over the forecast period.

Key Highlights

- GlobalData expects the infrastructure construction market to record a forecast-period CAGR of 7.01% in nominal terms, driven by public and private sector investments in the development and modernization of the country’s transport infrastructure. The government proposed to allocate NOK73.1 billion (US$9 billion) towards transport and communications in its 2019 budget - an increase of 7.9% compared to the 2018 budget.

- Energy and utilities construction market’s growth over the forecast-period will be driven by the government’s efforts to promote renewable energy. In April 2019, the government allowed the Government Pension Fund Global to double its investment in unlisted renewable energy infrastructure. The fund will be permitted to invest up to NOK120 billion (USD12.9 billion) in renewable energy projects, as compared to the previous NOK60 billion (US$6.9 billion).

- GlobalData expects the residential construction market to record a forecast-period CAGR of 2.51% in nominal terms in 2023, driven by public and private sector investments in the construction of new residential buildings to meet the demand for housing. In July 2018, an agreement was signed between Bjørnegårdsvingen ANS and Vedal Entreprenør AS for a housing project in Bærum. The NOK386 million (US$47.4 million) project involves the construction of 125 apartments in Sandvika by 2021.

- Institutional construction market’s growth over the forecast-period will be driven by investments in educational and healthcare building construction projects. In the 2019 budget, the government proposed to increase its allocation to education sector by 4.5%, going from NOK3.5 billion (US$434.8 million) in 2018 to NOK3.7 billion (US$442.2 million) in 2019. Moreover, the government proposed to allocate NOK4.8 billion (US$573.6 million) in its 2019 budget towards healthcare.

- The total construction project pipeline in Norway - as tracked by GlobalData, and including all mega projects with a value above US$25 million - stands at NOK1.7 trillion (US$209.1 billion). The pipeline, which includes all projects from pre-planning to execution, is skewed towards late-stage projects, with 52.5% of the pipeline value being in projects in the pre-execution and execution stages as of October 2019.

GlobalData’s Construction in Norway - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2023 report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Norwegian construction industry, including -

- The Norwegian construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Norwegian construction industry
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Norway. It provides -
- Historical (2014-2018) and forecast (2019-2023) valuations of the construction industry in Norway, featuring details of key growth drivers.
- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to buy

- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.
- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.
- Understand the latest industry and market trends.
- Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.
- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.
- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.